Real Estate in McLean and Great Falls Strong for First 3 Quarters 2013

by Karen Briscoe
November 14, 2013

In almost every market segment of McLean and Great Falls the number of residential transactions are up in the first 3 quarters of 2013 compared to the same time period in 2012. The total number of sales increased 6% which is very strong given that it represents only the first 3 quarters of the year.

The largest gain was in the upper bracket market segment of properties that sold for greater than $1.25 million, with a 20% increase in number of transactions. All price points experienced a gain in number of sales in the respective market segment except for the lowest category of under $750,000. My theory is that many market segments are experiencing price increases at such a level that home buyers are having to move into the next bracket up in order to be able to purchase. Further throughout the first 3 quarters of 2013 the lower price ranges experienced significant inventory shortages. Thus I believe that we could very well have seen a larger gain in all segments had there been more homes available to purchase for the entry level home buyer.

McLean & Great Falls Market Analysis of Homes Sales:

1st 3 Qtrs. 2012 compared to 1st 3 Qtrs. 2013             (Based on Final Closed Price)

 

 

>$3 Mil.

$2-3 Mil.

$1.25-2 Mil

 

$750k-$1.25 Mil

<$750k

1st 3 Qtrs. 2012

 

 

 

 

 

 

22101

8

18

81

 

113

126

22102

5

12

29

 

70

125

22066

5

6

37

 

79

35

 

Total: 18

Total: 36

Total: 147

 

Total: 262

Total: 286

 

Combined Total Upper Brackets: 201

 

Combined Total Lower Brackets: 548

 

 

 

All Sales 1st 3 Qtrs. 2013: 749

 

 

1st 3 Qtrs. 2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

22101

9

21

81

 

163

76

22102

4

15

40

 

52

131

22066

8

9

54

 

100

31

 

Total: 21

Total: 45

Total: 175

 

Total: 315

Total: 238

 

Combined Total Upper Brackets: 241

 

Combined Total Lower Brackets: 553

 

 

 

All Sales 1st 3 Qtrs. 2013: 794

 

 

 

My predictions for the final quarter of 2013 has to do with supply versus demand in the various market segments.

In the entry level home buyer market of McLean and Great Falls, considered to be under $750,000, there continues to be a serious shortage of supply. At the time this data was compiled, there exists less than an one month supply of homes available to purchase. Most real estate experts consider a balanced market to be a six month supply. This is a great time to be a seller in the under $750,000 price range in McLean and Great Falls. Homes priced correctly and in top condition for the current market are selling rapidly and in many cases with multiple offers, escalation clauses and contingency-free contracts.

The move-up market segment of McLean and Great Falls is the $750,000 to $1.25 million. Currently there exists only a three month supply of properties available to purchase. With supply running at generally one-half of the current demand that is why good homes priced correctly for the market are selling quickly for a strong price and terms.

The upper bracket market in this area is considered to be homes valued at $1.25 million or more. The good news is that in McLean and Great Falls the market has stabilized as we are currently at a 10 month supply of inventory. That means in parts of this market segment it may still be more of a buyers market than a Sellers.

The peak of the real estate market in Northern Virginia was in 2005-2006. The market typically follows a year cycle from peak to peak. My ongoing prediction that values would return to market peak for this area in some segments beginning in 2012 was right on track. The first 3 quarters of 2013 reiterates that trend. Thus 2013 is continuing to prove that it will be a very good year for the McLean and Great Falls real estate market.

Karen Briscoe is Principal of the HBC Realty Group-Keller Williams. Please contact her via the means most convenient for you: www.HBCRealtyGroup.com, 703-734-0192, Homes@HBCRealtyGroup.com.

Karen Briscoe is Principal of the Huckaby Briscoe Conroy Group (HBC) and author of "Real Estate Success in 5 Minutes a Day". She is an Associate Broker in Virginia, a Certified Luxury Home Market Specialist, and a member of the Women’s Council of Realtors. Karen began her real estate career developing residential lots with the Trammel Crow Company in Dallas, and in commercial real estate with The Staubach Company in the Washington, DC Metro area. Karen has a Masters Degree from Southern Methodist University and her BA from Stephens College in Columbia, Missouri – her hometown.
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